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Since the formation of the Welsh Kite Trust in 1996, the population of Welsh red kites has risen from just over 100 pairs to an estimated 2500 pairs in 2019, and it is still increasing. The need for active conservation measures seem to be no longer necessary, though with the recent arrival of avian influenza, there is definitely a need for continued monitoring.

The research, monitoring and active conservation measures that contributed to the kite’s revival was largely funded by the Friends of the Welsh Kite (FOWK) scheme, which at its peak, had more than 1000 subscribers. An annual subscription was generously given with most of the money being spent directly on research and monitoring and a small percentage used to produce a twice-yearly newsletter reporting the results; the “Boda Wennol” magazine. By spring 2017, the number of FOWK donations had fallen in line with ever increasing kite population, and the trustees took the decision not to send out newsletters, but instead to set up a website where any reports could be viewed, hence reducing publication costs which had risen sharply as a proportion of donations received. This allowed the funding of mileage expenses to volunteers who continued to monitor kites and other raptors, as well as funding for colour ring schemes for kestrel and goshawk, and nest boxes for kestrels.

At a recent meeting, WKT trustees took the decision to discontinue the FOWK scheme. This was triggered by the bank’s decision to discontinue the type of account used by the Trust. At short notice, the main account was closed and all existing funds were transferred safely to a new account, but any future payments for existing standing orders into the closed account could no longer be serviced by the bank. Unlike direct debits, standing orders cannot be cancelled by the receiving bank and therefore WKT is not in a position to cancel any of the standing orders. After some discussion as to how best to deal with this situation, it was felt that existing funds held by the Trust would be sufficient to cover the volunteer expenses of the proposed monitoring over the next five years, and also to contribute towards additional small-scale research or monitoring projects.

If you still have an existing standing order, we advise you to cancel it. We will try to contact as many FOWK subscribers who had standing orders as possible, but not all contact details are up to date, so please bear with us if you haven’t heard from us. If you receive a notice from your bank saying that the standing order hasn’t gone through, then please don’t worry, you can just cancel it.

The trustees acknowledged the huge contribution made by Friends of the Welsh Kite subscribers over the years, which has been essential to kite research and conservation which has resulted in the red kite now being a daily sight across most of Wales which all can enjoy.

THANK YOU

Summary: In 2019 the welsh red kite population is thought to be about 2500 breeding pairs. The post below shows how this estimate has been made.

Previous population estimates

Initially, during the early 2000’s the estimates could be confidently made to within + or – 25 pairs based on a collection of field observations collated by WKT covering most of the recorded breeding distribution, but it wasn’t long before the number of breeding pairs climbed to more than 1000, and it was no longer possible to make any sensible estimate by these methods. It is currently only possible to make realistic estimates by extrapolating from the results of monitored samples, and/or modelling.

This estimate

The population changes of any species depend on the breeding productivity and the survival of full-grown birds. The WKT has produced productivity figures annually throughout the period 1994 to 2019. These figures can be considered reliable as they are based on a large sample of monitored nests (6000+ in total) taken from both core areas and the periphery of the breeding range. Survival is harder to monitor, but a study of tagged kites from the Welsh population (Newton, Davis & Davis 1989) concluded that during their first year, about 66% of birds survive once they have fledged. Survival increases to 80% for the second year and is typically around 95% for territorial adults. These figures are similar to those measured in other kite populations.

Knowing the productivity and subsequent survival means that the population can be modelled, and the size can be estimated based on an extrapolation. In the graph below the model estimate is shown in orange. It was indexed to the field data in 1994 (111 pairs) and then used the annual measured productivity figures collected by WKT (adjusted between 2007 and 2011 to allow for birds removed from welsh nests for release schemes), and the above survival figures to estimate the population up to 2019.

As can be seen, the population estimates made by the model from 1995 to 2006 are an almost exact match to the figures derived from dedicated fieldwork (WKT). This gives confidence to the survival estimates made by Newton et al.

Then from 2006 they are broadly similar up to 2012 when WKT stopped producing estimates based on fieldwork. The projected trend then shows the population continuing to increase exponentially to around 2770 pairs in 2019.

How reliable is it?

At first, the figure of 2770 pairs may seem surprisingly high, and it should be born in mind that the survival rate of individuals post-fledging is likely vary from year to year depending on weather, and is also expected to decrease as the population approaches the carrying capacity due to competition for food. The model does not take this into account, so the figure should perhaps be treated as an upper limit rather than mid-range. Another factor that is likely to be density dependent is productivity, which is also predicted to decrease as the population increases due to increased competition for food and nest sites. However, productivity has been annually monitored with a large sample size and is taken into account by the model. To date there has been no long-term change in productivity and throughout the period it has remained at around 0.9 chicks per breeding attempt, implying that density dependent factors are yet to kick in, at least during the breeding season.

The BTO’s Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) project monitors randomly selected 1km squares which are covered by two transects each 1km in length. The number of red kites recorded on monitored 1km squares in Wales has been increasing and in the graph above the grey line shows the trend from 2003 when the number of kites recorded on BBS squares was indexed to the mid-range of the WKT population estimate of 375 pairs (+ or – 25). The trend is more variable than the model, but it broadly agrees and will become more reliable in the future as the species is recorded more widely and more frequently by the BBS.

All models extrapolating from a single point over a long period (in this case 26 seasons) are going to be prone to error, but the almost identical match between the model predictions and the figures derived from detailed fieldwork up to 2006 suggest that the model is at least plausible.  The figure of 2770 pairs is likely to be a maximum, because survival may have been lower in cold winters, and may have decreased since those published in 1989 as competition for food increases.  Also, some of the birds included in the estimate are breeding outside of Wales, as the breeding range of the welsh population has expanded east wards into Shropshire and Herefordshire.

The trends in nest success and chick productivity over 25 years

Between 1994 and 2018, over 6000 breeding attempts have been monitored with known outcomes, and these data are summarised in the graph below:

It is immediately obvious that, since 1994, there has been very little change during the period. The fluctuation in nest success (the grey line), which has ranged between 48% and 72%, is probably weather related, and the corresponding trend line shows that there has been a very slight long-term increase.

The fledged brood size of successful nests (orange line) shows a very slight downward trend. This offsets the slight increase in nest success resulting in a near static overall productivity of around 0.9 chicks per breeding attempt (blue line), with the fluctuations also explained by weather.

There has been a claim on a recent television programme that kites are now producing two or three young per pair as a result of supplementary meat provided by feeding stations, and that this explains the unexpected rapid increase in the population growth recorded since the early 1990’s, but the data show that brood size has not increased. Feeding stations could, however, have an effect on adult and 1st winter survival, especially during periods of snow cover when food is difficult to obtain in the wider countryside, and it is changes in survival that are most likely to have led to the population changes witnessed.

The early spring of 2018 will be remembered for an unseasonably cold snap at the end of February, “the Beast from the East” and this was followed by more cold weather in late March and into April. Bad weather early in the season can affect the breeding success of some species due to females perhaps being in poorer condition which in turn means they lay fewer eggs, so how did the cold weather affect kites during the later breeding season?

Well in the end, the summer turned out to be one of the warmest and driest on record, with very few heavy rain events or high winds, and altogether 171 breeding attempts were monitored. The results indicate that the cold snap early on actually had little or no lingering impacts;

	Monitoring 2018	Average 1994-2017
Nests Found	171
Nests Successful	123
% Nests Successful	71.9%	62.5%
Fledged Total	161
Fledged per Nest	0.94	0.90
Fledged per Successful Nest	1.31	1.41

The number of young fledged per breeding attempt (0.94) is slightly higher than average, and the percentage of breeding attempts that were successful (71.9%) is the highest ever recorded, with the average from 1994 to 2017 being 62.5%.

With Welsh kites, lower nest survival is inevitably associated with bad weather, and the higher figure for 2018 is almost certainly due to the exceptionally warm dry weather during the 2018 main breeding season, resulting in ideal foraging conditions and less risk of exposure to wet and windy weather which is known to increase nestling mortality.

The slightly higher nest productivity in 2018 is due to a higher proportion of successful nests, rather than larger broods, as the mean productivity per successful pair (1.31) is lower than the long-term average of 1.41. It is predicted that brood size will begin to show a decrease as the population approaches its carrying capacity and competition for food limits productivity.

In total, 180 nests were monitored with the sample spread between the core area of the range and the edge.  Of these, 113 were successful, fledging 144 young. The mean number of young per nest was 0.80, and 1.27 per successful nest. As in previous years, the Shropshire red kites had the highest productivity, and this was due to larger brood sizes rather than a significantly higher nest success rate. Pembrokeshire showed the lowest productivity with nest failures associated with bad weather in early May and the first week of June. 

For the newsletter and more detailed reports click on the following links:

Boda Wennol WKT Newsletter Feb 2018

Detailed report of red kites in Llandeilo/Brecon area 2017

Detailed report of red kites in East Powys 2017

Detailed report of red kites in Shropshire 2017

If you see evidence of breeding Red Kites in Shropshire, we would like to know, please.

Contact: Leo Smith by email at  leo@leosmith.org.uk,  or phone 01694 720296, or by filling in this contact form

Red Kites almost became extinct in Wales in the 1930’s, but the population slowly increased, reaching 100 pairs in 1993. They have spread since then, and two pairs nested unsuccessfully in Shropshire in 2005. One pair fledged two young here in 2006, the first successful breeding in Shropshire for 130 years. Six nests were found in 2007, and, by 2010, the population had reached 20 breeding pairs. Numbers have continued to increase.

In 2016, 24 pairs were located, and 23 nests were found; 18 were successful, producing 31 fledged young. (See full report here). Since the first successful breeding in 2006, more than 200 young are known to have flown from Shropshire nests. 180 of these young have been tagged as part of a long-term study.

Almost all found nests have been in the AONB in the south-west Shropshire hills, but the range is spreading, and there have been nests near Chirbury, and along Wenlock Edge and near the Clee Hills, in the last four years. As the range increases, they are harder for us to find, so reports from the rest of the county are particularly important, please.

Kites usually don’t breed until they are two or three years old. Young birds wander widely, so many sightings will be of immature birds. However, there should be even more nests to find this year, including some in north and east Shropshire. Most nests are started in late March, but first-time breeders may not lay until late April or early May. Nests are usually built in large trees, on steep hillsides. Young fly in late June or early July. Nest sites are kept confidential.

We are still trying to find all nests, so reports are wanted, please, of a pair together in spring, or displaying, or one seen several times in the same place, or one going into a wood, any time between March and June. Reports of wing-tagged birds are wanted too, please. All reports will be treated in absolute confidence. Kites are very shy, and they are legally protected. It is an offence to disturb them, but this monitoring is carried out under licence.

We aim to wing-tag more than 20 nestlings in 2017, so finding as many nests as possible this year is particularly important. This is the final year of the tagging study and we hope to increase the sample of tagged birds to over 200, so any help is gratefully received.

Thank you,

Leo Smith

The latest Welsh Kite Trust newsletter – Boda Wennol Issue 29 is available to view or download here.

Newsletters are now published on the website to reduce administration costs which has begun to escalate.

With mild weather forecast to continue through to the end of February, it is likely that many red kites will already be pairing up and hanging around their intended nest sites. They will often draw attention to themselves by their plaintive whinnying call, as was heard yesterday near a nest in Pembrokeshire that was used successfully in 2016 season. In 2016, WKT volunteer nest watchers managed to record the nest outcomes of 175 kite nests at widely scattered locations and these results are presented in the downloadable PDF file below.

 

Download 2016 kite monitoring results

 

2016 was an unremarkable breeding season for kites, being not especially good or bad, but how will they fare in 2017? It is already the time to get busy looking for this year’s nests.

NB red kite is a schedule 1 species requiring a disturbance license to monitor nests. It otherwise illegal to disturb breeding kites at the nest.

Paddy Jenks

 

 

Red Kites Llandeilo to Brecon 2016

Objectives

The objective of monitoring the Red Kites in this area is to ascertain the size of the population on an annual basis. The population size is compared to that the previous year to ascertain an expansion or contraction. An expansion involves identifying new pairs and a contraction identifying missing pairs. The outcome of each breeding attempt in terms of the number of young produced  is included in an assembly of data in respect of each year so that an ongoing assessment of the total population can be made year on year and trends identified.

Area covered

The area of Wales covered by this study lies between Brecon, Powys in the east and Llandeilo, Carmarthenshire in the West. It is bounded on the North by the A40 Trunk Road between Brecon and Llandeilo and on the South by the mountain and moorland of the Brecon Beacons. The boundary in the East was originally the A470 and in the West the A483. In recent years the adjoining area comprised in the Eppynt Valleys has also been covered. This lies immediately to the north of the A40 and extends from Llandovery and the A483 Builth Wells Road in the West to Brecon and the B4520 Upper Chapel Road in the East and on the North by the military ranges of the Eppynt Uplands.

For the sake of comparison with studies of other species it seemed more rational to define the whole area by reference to 10-km squares and the boundaries have been amended to reflect that. The whole study area now includes SN62, SN72, SN82, SN92, SO02, SN73, SN83, SN93 and SO03.

Two of the 10km squares included in the area south of the A40, SN72 and SN92 are distinguished by the goal of finding every kite nest by checking every possible site, whether historic, traditional, recent or potential. In the wider area outside these 10km squares and in the Eppynt Valleys an attempt is made to check all nests from the previous year and recent years, potential areas of woodland and to follow up any leads or information. SN72 has included a Red Kite Feeding Station since 2003.

Method

Starting as early as possible in the Season priority is given to checking all the Nest Sites from the preceding Season by watching at a distance from a high vantage using bins or scope, firstly in both 10km squares then in the wider area and Eppynt. When a conclusion can be reached on these Sites being occupied then all the nest sites from earlier years are checked and finally historic breeding sites, some going back to the 1800’s.

Results

Information on each Occupied Site is included in a data assembly following the information required by the Nest Record Cards published by the British Trust for Ornithology. The number of young reared is then used to calculate the average young per Occupied Site and also the young per successful nest. These figures can then used for comparison between years,  between different areas in Wales and in England, between 10km squares, between pre- and post- Feeding Stations and pre- and post- the Fallen Stock Scheme introduced in 2003. This figure is subject to the usual cautions that it may not always be possible to see all the young in a nest and that one or more young may have already fledged.

2016 Results

In the 2016 Season 119 Occupied Sites were found and 117 pairs laid eggs. The total number of young was 89.

The productivity figures resulting from this are 0.74 per nesting pair and 1.22 per successful nest. The figures when broken down into 10km squares are as follows:

 

Area	Number of Nesting Pairs	Number of Successful Nests	Total Fledged	Fledged per Nesting Attempt	Fledged per Successful Nesting Attempt
SN72	43	26	32	0.72	1.23
SN82	17	7	8	0.47	1.14
SN92	12	8	11	0.91	1.35
West of SN70	3	1	2	0.66	2.00
East of SN70	3	3	5	1.70	1.70
Eppynt	41	27	31	.75	1.14
Overall	119	72	89	.74	1.22

Notes

An attempt has been made to show the Eppynt nests for 2016 separately and with the SN82 nests were taken out of the 2015 Eof70 (ie East of the SN 70 Easting) and EandE (ie East and Eppynt) nests. It is intended to show nest sites by reference to 10-km squares in future and convert 2015 and earlier results to the same basis.

Comparisons

The 2015 figures are as follows:

 

Area	Number of Nesting Pairs	Number of Successful Nests	Total Fledged	Fledged per Nesting Attempt	Fledged per Successful Nesting Attempt
SN72	42	29	34	0.81	1.17
SN92	13	9	13	1.0	1.33
West of SN70	4	4	5	1.25	1.25
East of SN70	32	22	27	0.84	1.22
Eppynt	16	7	7	0.44	1.0
Overall	107	71	86	0.80	1.21

It is hoped to make the comparisons to be drawn from the above Results with previous years the subject of future reports.

Back from the Brink!

The Red Kite was voted ‘Bird of the 20th Century’ and Wales’ favourite bird, the story of the Red Kite in Britain is a remarkable one, and rightly celebrated as one of Britain’s greatest conservation successes.

In mediaeval times the kite was abundant in towns and cities. In London, it was protected by Royal decree, in recognition of its service in removing refuse and dead animals that could otherwise harbour diseases. In the 14th and 15th centuries the Red Kite was probably the most numerous and familiar bird of prey in Britain. All this was to change.

In the mid 16th century a series of parliamentary Acts were invoked aimed at controlling ‘vermyn’. As a result, over the following three hundred years, the unfortunate kite was systematically slaughtered. By the turn of the century a mere handful of pairs survived in the remoter valleys of mid-Wales.

The subsequent recovery of the kite in Wales was not simply a matter of luck: a huge amount of time, money and effort have been invested in the past and so, in 1996, the Welsh Kite Trust was set up to ensure that the success already achieved was continued.